Storm Track 3 Forecast: Tracking severe storms and snow with a dynamic system

7 March 2024

A dynamic weather day is in progress across Kansas.  Storms have been ongoing farther east with a wintry mix in the far northwest corner.  We are not finished with the unsettled weather just yet.  

More storms will fire ahead of the main low pressure system into this evening, especially near and south of Highway 54.  A few storms will be severe, capable of large hail and damaging winds.  A tornado cannot be ruled out along the Kansas/Oklahoma state line, but this is highly conditional. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 PM Thursday.  

More sunshine will lead to more instability in this section of our viewing area into the early evening.  

After sunset, our severe storm chances will drop.  However, scattered showers and storms will still be possible into the early overnight farther east/southeast.

While the warm sector of this system produces strong to severe storms, the colder side in extreme Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska will change completely over to snow as temps cool early tonight.  Winter weather alerts are posted for a few counties to account for the highest snowfall accumulations through Friday.  

This spot could see anywhere from 3″ to more than 6″ of snow with locally higher amounts farther northwest.  

Into Friday, rain showers remain possible from central into eastern Kansas, but closer to the Kansas/Colorado state line, it will be mainly snow.  Snowfall accumulations will dip south over the High Plains but only accumulate to the tune of a dusting to an inch of snow.  There may be another small localized area of higher snowfall accumulations near the Kansas/Oklahoma state line into the Oklahoma Panhandle from an inch or two, maybe 3″ of snow, at most.  

With increasing northerly winds on Friday, it will be a raw winter day.  Winds will be sustained from 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 40.  Highs will be in the 30s with some making it to the lower 40s.  The axis of the strongest winds tracks to the east Friday night before relaxing Saturday. Sunshine returns over the weekend.  Saturday will be the coolest day of the weekend coming off a hard freeze in western Kansas.  Sunday will be much warmer except where the snowpack is located in far Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska.  

Warming winds continue early next week with highs back to the 70s.  Fire danger may need to be watched out west, but things are greening up quickly.  Another unsettled stretch is expected from the middle to latter parts of next week.  More storms are possible and some could be strong.

KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman:
Wichita:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. 70% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 42 Wind: SE/N 8-18
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy, windy. 40% chance of rain showers. Hi: 45 Wind: N 15-25
Tomorrow Night: Mostly to partly cloudy, windy. Lo: 27 Wind: N/NW 10-25

Wichita Weekly
Sat: Hi: 53 Lo: 27 Mostly sunny.
Sun: Hi: 64 Lo: 38 Mostly sunny, breezy.
Mon: Hi: 70 Lo: 48 Mostly sunny, windy.
Tue: Hi: 73 Lo: 46 Partly cloudy, windy.
Wed: Hi: 72 Lo: 47 Mostly cloudy, breezy. 20% chance of showers and storms.
Thu: Hi: 67 Lo: 44 Mostly cloudy, breezy.

–Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman

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