23 November 2023
An arctic front advances across the state for Thanksgiving Day, ushering in a change toward wintry weather for the next several days. We all start out cold in the 20s, then warming to milder conditions by afternoon.
The southern half of Kansas will sneak in milder highs in the 50s to low 60s before the front arrives, while the northern half will turn colder earlier and may not escape the 40s. By the end of the day, a biting northeast wind will take over for all as we plunge into the freezer.
Lows tonight will be cold, ranging from the teens to low 30s.
Black Friday will be the beginning of a potential winter storm across much of Kansas. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect through Saturday.
Snow begins Friday before noon in northwest Kansas. This first wave will be on the lighter side, with light to moderate snow beginning to accumulate throughout the day.
Highs stay below freezing in western Kansas Friday, otherwise chilly for those farthest south and east.
A second wave of precipitation develops early in the day on Saturday, and this will not only be heavier but also tracks farther south and east than the first wave. This will bring snow for much of the KSN viewing area.
The forecast for Wichita proper remains tricky, as we will be flirting with 32°F for the entire duration the precipitation is coming down. The good news is that there is no warmer air aloft, which will eliminate the possibility of sleet or freezing rain.
In situations like this, differences of a single degree Fahrenheit can move the corridor of highest snowfall by many miles, leading to wildly different outcomes from very subtle variations. Determining the exact location of the freezing line is the crux of the entire forecast, which remains subject to change. Suffice it to say, the rain/snow transition will be somewhere near the Kansas Turnpike on Saturday. Expect plenty of precipitation, with the possibility that it may come down as a heavy, wet snow!
After this system wraps up, things quiet down into the coming week, but we will stay on the cold side as arctic air hangs around, with temperatures in the teens overnights and highs in the 30s and 40s.
KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Meteorologist Jack Maney:
Wichita:
Today: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Hi: 56 Wind: S/NE 8-18
Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy. Lo: 30 Wind: NE 10-20
Tomorrow: Cloudy, breezy. Hi: 40 Wind: NE 10-20
Tomorrow night: Cloudy. 10% chance of snow. Lo: 27 Wind: NE 8-18
Wichita Weekly
Sat: Hi: 34 Lo: 21 Cloudy. 70% chance of snow.
Sun: Hi: 36 Lo: 19 Mostly to partly cloudy.
Mon: Hi: 39 Lo: 17 Mostly sunny.
Tue: Hi: 41 Lo: 23 Partly cloudy.
Wed: Hi: 45 Lo: 25 Partly cloudy.
Thu: Hi: 49 Lo: 29 Partly cloudy.