15 June 2023
Hope you are enjoying a nice quiet start to this Thursday because later today will be a different story. There are some clouds and spotty showers which have been crossing parts of western Kansas but central and eastern Kansas have been enjoying nothing but sunshine and temperatures are warming into the 70s to lower 80s.
Later today, there is a moderate risk in much of Southwest Kansas for severe thunderstorms complete with very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Meanwhile, a nice day with warmer temperatures is ahead for the Wichita area with temperatures reaching the upper 80s, right on the average for mid-June. Temperatures will be warming quickly today and we reach the mid 80s out west and upper 80s to low 90s in Wichita.
Storms begin to develop out west early this afternoon as strong upper level disturbance and dry line head into the Oklahoma panhandle and western Kansas. These storms will quickly form into a complex of severe thunderstorms in southwestern Kansas by the mid-afternoon.
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded portions of southwestern Kansas and Oklahoma to a Moderate Risk. The primary threats today will be extremely strong winds and very large hail. Storms will be capable of wind gusts over 80 mph and hail over baseball size. There is also a decent tornado threat with these storms, but it is not quite to the same caliber as the wind and hail threats.
As storms move east in the afternoon, we expect them to lose their intensity by early evening. Storms farther south in Oklahoma will cut the ones in Kansas off from the best moisture and instability, so the worst of the storms will move into Oklahoma while ours taper off. If you are planning on driving to Oklahoma City or anywhere in that vicinity, please be weather aware.
Rain may fizzle out by the time it reaches south-central Kansas, and our chances of seeing storms in the Wichita metro are very conditional. Lows tonight will be cool in the 50s and 60s.
Highs tomorrow will be a touch cooler with highs in the lower 80s west to upper 80s east.
Another round of storms develops tomorrow afternoon especially across western and northern Kansas. A few of these may become severe but the risk of severe weather tomorrow appears much lower than today.
Another round of storms is on tap for Saturday, this time a bit farther east.
Severe weather will once again be possible.
After Saturday’s round of storms exits, Father’s Day will be more on the hot and dry side, with highs rising to the 90s. Dry weather holds through early next week, but storm chances may return by midweek.
6/15/23 KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman:
Wichita:
This afternoon: Partly to mostly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms. Hi: 89 Wind: SE 5-15
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. 50% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 64 Wind: SE 8-18
Tomorrow: Mostly to partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms. Hi: 87 Wind E 5-15
Tomorrow night: Mostly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 64 Wind: SE 5-15
Wichita Weekly
Sat: Hi: 88 Lo: 63 Partly to mostly cloudy. 40% chance of showers and storms.
Sun: Hi: 89 Lo: 67 Partly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms.
Mon: Hi: 93 Lo: 70 Partly cloudy.
Tue: Hi: 95 Lo: 69 Mostly sunny.
Wed: Hi: 93 Lo: 68 Partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms.
Thu: Hi: 92 Lo: 67 Partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms.
Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman