26 February 2023
Temperatures are a lot warmer today than they have been since Wednesday, and those warmer temperatures are going to have a side effect of providing fuel for thunderstorms this evening.
Highs soar to the upper 60s and low 70s in western Kansas before storms develop, cooler east where a bit more cloudcover will slow down the warming process. A few light showers will be possible around midday in the Wichita metro in the vicinity of the Kansas Turnpike, but the main show will develop in the late afternoon out west.
Thunderstorms will develop along the dry line in western Kansas and the Panhandles around 3 to 4 pm, and will race off to the east as they mature. A few large hailstones will be possible especially early on when storms are a bit more isolated, but quick growth into a squall line is expected which transitions the threat over to primarily damaging straight line winds.
Storms arrive in Wichita around 8 to 9 pm, and they will likely be severe with wind gusts over 70mph possible. Because the warm, moist air will only be arriving just in the nick of time, the storms will be less intense and organized farther north.
The most ideal ingredients will come together to our south over Oklahoma, where a Moderate Risk is in effect. Wichita and areas close to the Oklahoma state line are under the Enhanced Risk, with decreasing threat levels as you travel north. Where the line is more organized, spin-up tornadoes embedded within the line will be more likely to occur.
The storms pull clear shortly after midnight, and in their wake skies will clear out. For the first time in several days, bright sunshine is expected Monday!
There will not be much of a temperature difference behind the storm system, and it will be a mild Monday. Spend a little time outdoors, the only real downside to tomorrow is that our winds will be a bit strong.
Temperatures stay mild early in the week, but another cooldown is coming around Thursday, which might be coupled with a bit of moisture to bring the chance of some light showers or perhaps a bit of snow, although major accumulations are not expected at this time.
2/26/23 KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Meteorologist Jack Maney:
Wichita:
Today: Mostly cloudy, windy. 50% chance of thunderstorms. Hi: 59 Wind: S/SW 15-30
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, windy. 100% chance of thunderstorms. Lo: 45 Wind: SW/NW 10-25
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, windy. Hi: 64 Wind: NW 10-25. 10% Chance of Thunderstorms.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly clear, breezy. Lo: 35. Wind: NW 8-18
Wichita Weekly
Tue: Hi: 63 Lo: 38 Mostly Sunny, breezy.
Wed: Hi: 57 Lo: 32. Partly Cloudy, breezy.
Thu: Hi: 48 Lo: 26. Mostly Cloudy, windy.
Fri: Hi: 52. Lo: 27. Partly Cloudy, breezy.
Sat: Hi: 58 Lo: 33. Partly Cloudy.