7 May 2023
An early season heat wave continues today and we’re feeling very much like summertime outside, with warm morning lows in the 60s.
Temperatures quickly jump through the morning and we top out in the mid 90s again today. Wichita’s record high for May 7th is 96 degrees set in 2014, and we will get fairly close to that today but most likely stay just below it.
A complex of storms will move through Nebraska today and some of that activity may clip our farthest northern regions, but rain chances are generally about 10% this afternoon.
Some of the storms will be strong to severe. An Enhanced Risk is in effect for the farthest northeast corner of Kansas, but for the KSN viewing area we will be barely clipped by the surrounding Slight Risk.
The dry line will be set up near the Kansas Turnpike and may attempt to fire off a storm but most models are keeping this from happening. If anything forms, it would pose a severe threat, but the cap should hold and we should stay dry in Wichita.
Tonight, we see another warm night for Wichita with lows in the 50s and 60s, 40s in northwest Kansas.
A weak cold front shifts winds around to the north tonight, but there is not much punch to it. Temperatures only back off by about five degrees and another very warm day is on tap to start our week.
If you’re wondering why the summer heat came early, you can blame Canada. Or at least what’s going on over their heads.
An unusual high-latitude blocking pattern has been keeping the colder air bottled up to the north this week, which keeps jet stream winds weak this far south and promotes strong high pressure ridging. But before you lose hope, this might turn out to be a blessing in disguise.
Our weather this week is more reminiscent of June than May. Under the upper ridge, we have pooled quite a lot of moisture in the air. It’s one piece of the puzzle, but we also need some disturbances to set things in motion. Luckily, we will have some of that this week as a series of weak disturbances approaches from the west. This should be enough to ignite the pool of fuel we have in place.
Thunderstorm chances are looking healthy this week beginning on Tuesday and persisting into the rest of the week. A few complexes of mainly nocturnal storms are on the table, and this could bring more drought relief.
Severe weather chances are not zero, but they will remain limited as we will not have quite as much wind shear as we typically see in May. Keep your fingers crossed for the rain!
KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Meteorologist Jack Maney:
Wichita:
Today: Mostly sunny, windy. 10% chance of thunderstorms. Hi: 94 Wind: SW 10-25
Tonight: Partly cloudy, windy. 10% chance of thunderstorms. Lo: 63 Wind: SW 10-25
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny. 10% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Hi: 89 Wind: NE 8-18
Tomorrow Night: Partly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lo: 62. Wind: E 5-15
Wichita Weekly
Tue: Hi: 88 Lo: 62 Partly cloudy, breezy. 30% chance of showers and storms.
Wed: Hi: 82 Lo: 63 Mostly cloudy, windy. 40% chance of showers and storms.
Thu: Hi: 81 Lo: 61 Mostly cloudy, windy. 40% chance of showers and storms.
Fri: Hi: 84 Lo: 61 Mostly cloudy, breezy. 30% chance of showers and storms.
Sat: Hi: 80 Lo: 59 Partly cloudy, breezy. 20% chance of showers and storms.
Sun: Hi: 78 Lo: 56 Partly cloudy, breezy. 10% chance of showers and storms.