Storm Track 3 Forecast: Hot and dry through Labor Day. Rain chances by Tuesday

2 September 2023

It’s a very quiet early Saturday morning with mostly clear skies and comfortably cool temperatures ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s.

Temperatures will warm quickly today reaching the upper 90s to lower 100s, several degrees above September 2nd average highs which are in the upper 80s.

We are entering the holiday weekend with an upper-level high right across the Central Plains. This heat dome will bring us another stretch of upper 90s and lower 100s across all of Kansas. The dew point temperatures and humidity levels should not be all that high such that our heat index or real feel temperatures will be about the same as the actual air temperatures. This lower humidity will also allow temperatures to cool to comfortable levels during the evenings and overnight hours tonight with overnight lows expected to drop to the lower-to-middle 60s.

Fire concerns may become elevated this Holiday weekend and into early next week. Breezy, dry and warm weather will enhance this threat, though there are no fire watches or warnings in effect for the time being. The heat will remain with us at least through Labor Day as the upper-level high remains over the region.

Sunday will be very similar to today with sunshine, a gusty southerly breezy and temperatures achieving levels several degrees above our average highs which run in the upper 80s in early September. Highs Sunday afternoon are expected to run in the upper 90s to lower 100s once again.

Labor Day Monday looks quite like Sunday with temperatures remaining several degrees above average, a toasty finish to the holiday weekend. This is great news for those with outdoor plans this Holiday weekend, but rain is also desperately needed. Sunday and Monday nights will be warmer, not due to higher humidity, but instead to the steady south breeze persisting during the overnight hours.   

A cold front comes into northwest Kansas next week. Since it will take time for this front to cross our state, we will maintain a chance for random showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday northwest and Wednesday farther east. The southwest may get robbed. There is also a low pressure system that is rounding the bend of the dome of heat.  As the high shifts southeast, the low will move on the western side of this feature and help to produce rain for some, not all, within our region.

Temperatures will drop a few degrees behind the frontal passage but are expected to stay above-average for early September.  By the end of next week, the high will return to reinforce the heat back here at home especially across the southern half of the viewing area. 

Sporadic storm chances are possible next weekend around the outer rim of this high. Positioning of this feature will be important, although right now moisture looks favored north and east. 

9/2/23 KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Meteorologist Jack Boston:     
Wichita:
Today: Mostly sunny, breezy. Hi: 97 Wind: S 10-20
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lo: 65 Wind: S/SE 5-15
Tomorrow: Sunny to partly cloudy, breezy. Hi: 98 Wind: S 10-20
Tomorrow Night: Mostly clear. Lo: 70 Wind S/SE 10-18
Wichita Weekly
Mon: Hi: 98 Lo: 74 Mostly sunny, windy.
Tue: Hi: 99 Lo: 72 Mostly sunny to partly cloudy, windy. 10% chance of showers and storms.
Wed: Hi: 97 Lo: 70 Mostly sunny to partly cloudy, breezy. 20% chance of showers and storms.
Thu: Hi: 95 Lo: 69 Mostly sunny.  
Fri: Hi: 97 Lo: 68 Mostly sunny, breezy.
Sat: Hi: 93 Lo: 66 Partly cloudy, breezy.

Meteorologist Jack Boston

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