Storm Track 3 Forecast: Fire weather concerns midweek, storms arrive tomorrow

12 March 2024

A strong storm system is moving through Kansas today.  A dryline, or separation of drier air farther west and more moisture to the east, will track through central Kansas by evening.  There will be a drop in humidity values.  

With added warmth and wind, high grassland fire danger remains through early evening.  

Fire Weather Watches and Warnings will return for Southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle from 1 to 7 PM tomorrow as conditions will be warm and dry in that portion of the region again.

As Tuesday’s system progresses into eastern Kansas, it will spark a few thunderstorms near the Kansas/Missouri state line.  Most of this should be just outside the KSN viewing area with a greater chance of coming to fruition on the Missouri side.

Winds will relax overnight before a more potent storm system arrives Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures tonight will be comfortably cool ahead of the next cold front.  

A few rain showers are possible in Northwest Kansas early Wednesday.  

Moisture will return quickly into central and eastern Kansas through Wednesday afternoon and evening. This will meet up with a warm front that will be sitting near I-70.  Showers and storms will develop after 4 PM Wednesday and could become severe near and north of I-70.  Another area of storm formation is possible East of the Turnpike.  

Storms farther north in Kansas have the potential of producing all forms of severe weather from damaging winds to large hail and a tornado or two.  This area is circled for the highest severe chance into Wednesday evening.  

Additional showers and a few rumbles will be possible to the west into the overnight.  A shower or two may track through the Wichita Metro Wednesday night, but better chances for moisture align near the I-70 corridor.

Temperatures cool into Thursday with ongoing precipitation in Northwest Kansas. This is where snow is possible for much of Thursday.  Snowfall accumulations are possible near and north of I-70 in Northwest Kansas through Thursday night.  Some snow may also flirt with the Kansas/Colorado state line before waning early Friday. Travel could be greatly impacted late Thursday into Friday on I-70 in Colorado. Travel is not advised farther west!

Friday is a cooler day with a chance for rain showers in southern Kansas on Saturday.  Another surge of colder air sweeps south on Sunday knocking temps back a few pegs.  We will have another springy bounce again the following Tuesday with dry conditions.  

Next opportunity for rain will not be until the middle to late portions of next week.

KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman:
Wichita:
Tonight: Partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 46 Wind: SW/SE 5-15
Tomorrow: Partly to mostly cloudy, windy. 20% chance of showers and storms. Hi: 76 Wind: SE/S 10-25
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy, breezy. 20% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 48 Wind: S/NW 10-20

Wichita Weekly
Thu: Hi: 68 Lo: 40 Mostly cloudy, breezy.
Fri: Hi: 58 Lo: 38 Mostly cloudy, breezy.
Sat: Hi: 63 Lo: 39 Partly cloudy, breezy. 10% chance of rain.
Sun: Hi: 58 Lo: 28 Mostly sunny, windy.
Mon: Hi: 52 Lo: 32 Mostly sunny, breezy.
Tue: Hi: 61 Lo: 41 Partly cloudy, windy.

-Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman

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