23 March 2024
Waking up chilly with low clouds for many, Saturday will be more of a gray day across Kansas with sluggish warming that only takes us to the 50s in most of the state.
A few breaks in the clouds may allow a little sunlight through around midday, but clouds will continue thickening up into the afternoon. A few light showers may develop, but most stay dry for today.
Lows tonight will be a bit milder due to clouds and warm air pushing in on strengthening winds.
Winds ramp up tonight, becoming gustier with time.
Wind Advisories will take effect tomorrow for much of central Kansas.
A bit farther west, even stronger winds have prompted a High Wind Watch. Sustained winds as high as 40 miles per hour with gusts over 55 will be possible in this part of the state.
These gusty conditions will lead to high fire danger across much of southwestern Kansas where the air will also be desert dry. A Fire Weather Watch will take effect in southwest Kansas and the panhandles at 11 Sunday morning.
Sunday will be an active weather day across all of Kansas. A round of morning rainfall develops over western Kansas and tracks to the east through midday. Expect to wake up Sunday with scattered showers and storms in the area, though this initial activity will remain below severe thresholds.
Into the afternoon, the morning rain moves east and allows some clearing in parts of west-central Kansas, which will allow the atmosphere to quickly become unstable. The dry line, which is the divide between hot and dry desert air to the west and humid air to the east, will set up in southwest Kansas.
Storms develop along the dry line in the afternoon and quickly march east.
Tomorrow’s severe weather threat will be highly conditional, and depends largely upon how much cloud cover is left in the wake of the morning rains. If this clears a little faster, stronger instability develops and the severe threat will be higher. If the clouds hold, that will lower the odds of seeing storms. All forms of severe weather are possible, with damaging wind gusts and large hail as the main threats with a tornado or two possible. A Slight Risk of severe weather is in effect for tomorrow afternoon and evening.
As this storm system wraps up, cold air begins to spill in. This arrives in northwest Kansas first, spreading across the state by Monday morning. Temperatures will cold enough to make wintry weather possible late Sunday into early Monday. Wichita will stay warm and dry enough to prevent impactful wintry weather, but out west some travel issues may be possible.
Staying cooler in the wake of this storm system, we start our week below average and slowly warm back up through the week.
A weak system brings some clouds and sprinkles around the end of this week, and then another strong system may have its sights set on Kansas in about a week’s time. Our pattern remains active, so more opportunities for severe weather cannot be ruled out.
KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Meteorologist Jack Maney:
Wichita:
Today: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy. 20% chance of rain. Hi: 57 Wind: NE/SE 10-20
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, windy. 40% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 46 Wind: SE 10-25
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy, windy. 80% chance of thunderstorms. Hi: 63 Wind: SE 20-40
Tomorrow night: Mostly cloudy, windy. 60% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 40 Wind: SE/S 20-40
Wichita Weekly
Mon: Hi: 50 Lo: 28 Mostly to partly cloudy, windy. 20% chance of rain.
Tue: Hi: 49 Lo: 30 Mostly sunny, breezy.
Wed: Hi: 58 Lo: 39 Mostly sunny to partly cloudy, breezy. 10% chance of showers and storms.
Thu: Hi: 70 Lo: 50 Partly to mostly cloudy, windy.
Fri: Hi: 73 Lo: 44 Mostly to partly cloudy, windy.
Sat: Hi: 74 Lo: 46 Partly cloudy, windy.