AP mock NFL draft 2.0: Quarterbacks and wide receivers are the top 6 picks
6 April 2024
(NEXSTAR) — With the NFL Draft just a couple of weeks away, teams are painstakingly scouting the year’s top college players and determining who they think will still be on the board when it’s their turn to pick. But how does the NFL determine who gets to pick first?
Every year, all 32 NFL teams receive one pick in each of the NFL Draft’s seven rounds. The order is determined by the record of every team with every round starting with the team that finished with the worst record and ending with the Super Bowl champions, barring any trades.
Where things do get a little strange though is when assigning picks to playoff teams. For reference, 14 NFL teams make the playoffs, meaning that the first 18 picks are determined solely on record. Picks 19-32 however are determined based on which round of the playoffs the teams are eliminated in and then based on their regular season record.
So in the wild card round of the playoffs the six teams that are eliminated are given one of picks 19-24 based on their regular season record, in the next divisional round the four teams that are elminated are given one of picks 25-28 based on their regular season record, and so on and so forth with the team who wins the Super Bowl given pick 32.
Tie Breakers
Often times, multiple teams will finish the season with the same record as other teams. So to determine which of them gets to pick first, the deciding factor is strength of schedule. To figure this out, the NFL takes the average winning percentage of a team’s opponents from that season. The team that played the schedule with the lowest winning percentage will be awarded the higher pick.
If multiple teams have the same record AND the same strength of schedule, then both teams’ division or conference records are used to determine who gets the better pick. If a tie still exists, then a rabbit hole of different tiebreakers begins:
Head-to-head, if applicable
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games against the same opponents (minimum of four)
Strength of victory in all games
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
Best net points in all games
Best net touchdowns in all games
Coin toss
Compensatory Picks
Once the NFL Draft order is officially set with all 32 teams knowing their spot in all seven rounds, the NFL will award compensatory picks to teams who lost players from their team in free agency in the previous offseason.
The NFL is allowed to give out 32 total compensatory picks to teams and can be either a third, fourth, fifth, sixth, or seventh round pick. Each of the picks takes place after the initial 32 picks in said round.
To determine if a team receives a compensatory pick and if it is a third round pick or lower, the NFL uses a formula developed by the NFL Management Council, which considers a player’s salary, playing time, and postseason honors.
Once a player’s “value” is determined, the NFL looks at the free agents a team has lost and gained and awards teams picks of equal value. Teams can be awarded anywhere from zero to four Compensatory Picks.
The NFL Draft is set to kick off on Thursday, April 25 at 8 p.m. ET with the Chicago Bears slated to make the first pick.