21 May 2023
Starting out cool and calm this morning, skies will become more cloud filled as we head into the afternoon. Temperatures rise to the upper 70s and low 80s and winds turn toward the south but stay generally light.
The south wind will help to chase away the Canadian smoke plume and slowly return moisture to our air. That moisture is key to our storm chances over the coming week, and we’ll see our first round of storms tonight in far western Kansas.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop in western and especially southwestern Kansas today in the late afternoon, pushing east slowly into the evening. These are unlikely to make much eastward progress before they collapse tonight, and rain chances will be mainly confined to the western half of the state.
Lows tonight will be mild in the 50s statewide.
Heading into Monday, clouds continue to increase and another round of storms develops in western Kansas. These look more likely to progress eastward as moisture will be a bit more solidly in place, and this will bring at least low odds of precipitation to Wichita and central Kansas for Monday night.
Storms this week will be driven by features in the low levels of the atmosphere, boundaries left over from the previous day’s storms and weak areas of localized low pressure. As such, they will not be highly organized and severe weather is not going to be a huge concern this week, though some storms may be able to produce gusty winds and some large hailstones when they find unstable air.
Daily storm chances continue through the week, with afternoon highs generally trending near and slightly above normal by the end of the week.
Rainfall will be highly variable from place to place according to the scattered nature of the storms we expect to see, but additional rainfall totals over an inch look widespread, particularly in western Kansas. We need the rain, and if we can get it without severe weather, then we’re in for a good week!
KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Meteorologist Jack Maney:
Wichita:
Today: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Hi: 77 Wind: S 5-15
Tonight: Partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 55 Wind: SE 5-15
Tomorrow: Partly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms. Hi: 76 Wind: SE 5-15
Tomorrow Night: Partly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 58 Wind: SE 5-15
Wichita Weekly
Tue: Hi: 76 Lo: 59 Mostly cloudy. 30% chance of showers and storms.
Wed: Hi: 79 Lo: 60 Mostly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms.
Thu: Hi: 80 Lo: 62 Mostly cloudy, breezy. 30% chance of showers and storms.
Fri: Hi: 81 Lo: 64 Mostly cloudy, breezy. 20% chance of showers and storms.
Sat: Hi: 83 Lo: 63 Partly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms.
Sun: Hi: 85 Lo: 64 Partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms.