Storm Track 3 Forecast: Mild with a chance of storms for Easter weekend

8 April 2023

It’s a bit chilly out there this morning but most of Kansas has remained above freezing overnight.

Skies remain mostly to completely clear as we start our weekend, and that is how they stay through the day with another picture perfect outdoor afternoon!

Winds will be a bit stronger in north-central Kansas, where Fire Weather Warnings are in effect until 8pm.

Some gusts today reach above 30 mph. While not out of control, this is enough to bring the fire danger back for today.

Western Kansas will see slightly higher relative humidity values compared to yesterday, so fire danger there is slightly lower. Still, please be cautious if you are doing any burning anywhere in Kansas.

A few showers move toward the area from Colorado late in the day today and may sneak over the state line into far western Kansas around sunset, but rain will be very light and little impact is expected from this.

Lows tonight will be above freezing with 40s across the state and clouds increase. Another day of nearly perfect temperatures follows with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for Easter Sunday!

A weak disturbance in the upper atmosphere will cross Kansas on Easter Sunday, and that brings some rain chances to the forecast! A weak boundary sets up across west-central Kansas and serves as a focal point for storms to develop during the afternoon as modest instability develops.

These storms will not pose much of a severe risk, but some small hail and gusty winds are not out of the question with some of the stronger storms that do form. These will slowly move east during the late afternoon and begin to dissipate after sunset, with the last of the rain drying up shortly after midnight, and it is possible that they might not make it as far east as Wichita before they fall apart. Some heavy downpours could result in localized quarter inch rain totals, but it will be a feast or famine scenario. Rain chances stand at 20 to 30%.

Leftover rain departs the first half of Monday to the east.  Temps keep cranking through the 70s and a few 80s until the next system arrives at the end of next week. 

Friday into the following Saturday, another chance of showers arrives with our next upper level storm system. Models are still in disagreement for how quickly this moves through, with some even forming a cutoff low to our southwest through the weekend. We will be watching closely to determine if this spells rain or just more wind for Kansas.

4/8/23 KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Meteorologist Jack Maney:

Wichita:
Today: Mostly sunny. Hi: 72 Wind: S 8-18
Tonight: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lo: 44 Wind: SE 8-18
Tomorrow: Partly cloudy, breezy. 20% chance of showers and storms. Hi: 71 Wind: S 10-20
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy. 30% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 49 Wind: S 8-18

Wichita Weekly
Mon: Hi: 73 Lo: 50 Mostly to partly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms.
Tue: Hi: 77 Lo: 54 Mostly sunny, breezy.
Wed: Hi: 79 Lo: 56 Mostly sunny, windy.
Thu: Hi: 80 Lo: 55 Mostly sunny, windy.
Fri: Hi: 80 Lo: 54 Partly cloudy, windy. 10% chance of rain.
Sat: Hi: 77 Lo: 52 Partly cloudy, breezy. 10% chance of rain.

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