Storm Track 3 Forecast: Dynamic system, 50MPH+ gusts, severe storms and snow

22 March 2024

An aggressive cold front removed the low clouds and mist we had farther east today.  

Winds will gust up to 40 MPH in the wake of this front.  Winds should diminish after dark this evening.  

This front spills cooler air across Kansas for Saturday.  

While a few rain showers with a snow shower or two near the Kansas/Nebraska state line are possible on Saturday, more moisture becomes available as a stronger storm system tracks into the Plains later this weekend.  

There will be an uptick in rain showers from west to east Saturday night.  

Damp conditions will linger into Sunday morning from central into eastern Kansas.  

Winds will become a big problem.  Gusts from 40 more than 60 MPH will be possible from Saturday night through Monday.  

A High Wind Watch is in place for portions of the region from 10 AM to 7 PM on Sunday.

High fire danger is also evident behind the dryline, or boundary that separates more moisture to the East and drier air to the West, on Sunday.  

Fire Weather Watches are in place for western Kansas from 11 AM to 10 PM on Sunday. Expect to see watches and warnings fill in across the state by the end of the weekend.

Ahead of the dryline with a developing low pressure system, we will have a chance for a few severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into the evening.

Hail is the main threat followed by damaging winds.  A tornado cannot be ruled out.  

Two critical factors will play into Sunday’s severe set-up.  Moisture may be lacking with dew points in the lower 50s, but the dynamics may overrule this.  In addition, clouds from rain earlier in the day could keep the atmosphere more stable.  Any sunshine that pokes through will create a more unstable atmosphere.

Snow follows around this system Sunday night into Monday.  Best spots for this will be near/north of I-70 and in western Kansas with a higher chance in the northwest corner of the state.  Accumulations look minor.

Much colder air sits across the Sunflower State Monday through Wednesday.  Overnight temps will push us into frost/freeze territory.  

Slim chance for a sprinkle or shower Wednesday.  Temps surge warmer starting next Thursday to more springlike standards.

KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman:
Wichita:

Tonight: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lo: 32 Wind: NE 8-18
Tomorrow: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy. 20% chance of rain. Hi: 57 Wind: NE/SE 10-20
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy, breezy. 40% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 46 Wind: SE 10-25

Wichita Weekly
Sun: Hi: 63 Lo: 40 Mostly cloudy, windy. 80% chance of showers and storms.
Mon: Hi: 50 Lo: 28 Mostly to partly cloudy, windy. 20% chance of rain.
Tue: Hi: 49 Lo: 30 Mostly sunny, breezy.
Wed: Hi: 58 Lo: 39 Mostly sunny to partly cloudy, breezy. 10% chance of showers and storms.
Thu: Hi: 70 Lo: 50 Partly to mostly cloudy, windy.
Fri: Hi: 73 Lo: 44 Mostly to partly cloudy, windy.

-Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman

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