16 February 2024
Russia is preparing to potentially deploy a nuclear weapon in space that could threaten other satellites, raising a national security concern that has overtaken Washington this week after a cryptic warning from the House Intelligence Committee chair.
It remains unclear what the weapon actually is. White House spokesperson John Kirby said the weapon was “related to an anti-satellite capability that Russia is developing” but stressed the system was not yet deployed.
“Russia’s pursuit of this particular capability is troubling, [but] there is no immediate threat to anyone’s safety,” Kirby said. “We’re not talking about a weapon that can be used to attack human beings or cause physical destruction here on Earth.”
While the Biden administration has refrained from sharing any further details on the covert weapon system, reports indicate it is a nuclear weapon capable of taking out other satellites.
Russia’s history of developing nuclear weapons and anti-satellite weapons (ASAT) offers some clues as to what it may be — and the danger it poses to the U.S.
Here’s what we know so far.
ASATs are not new — but are a rising threat
Any weapon system capable of attacking a satellite can be considered an ASAT.
A kinetic ASAT is one that physically collides with a satellite to destroy it or it can strike one by detonating ballistic missiles or explosives nearby.
Nonkinetic ASATs render satellites useless with electronic warfare, cyberattacks or lasers.
ASAT testing began during the Cold War, when both the U.S. and the Soviet Union developed the capabilities for attacking other satellites, though they did not develop nuclear weapons in space.
Both Russia and China, which joined the ASAT race in 2007, are still developing ASATs, according to the Harvard International Review. In 2021, Russia tested an ASAT, destroying one of its own satellites. The test at the time led to a condemnation from Washington.
The weapons are highly coveted because they can serve as deterrence, threatening to blind rival nations, according to Harvard. But they also raise the risk of a destructive attack because a blinded nation may respond aggressively once in the dark, fearing a nuclear attack.
The U.S. last tested an ASAT in 2008, but President Biden issued an order in 2022 committing to not conduct any more destructive ASAT tests.
To date, there has not been a permanent deployment of any offensive weapons in space.
Sean McFate, a national security strategist and professor at Syracuse University, said Russia’s development of a new nuclear weapon could start an arms race and militarize space.
“Having a nuclear weapon in space like that permanently would be a clear violation of international norms,” he said. “That can create a nuclear space race. I think that’s the bigger threat.”
Such weapons could threaten GPS systems and communication networks that people across the world rely on every day, said Kirby, the White House spokesperson.
“Any anti-satellite capability should be of general concern,” Kirby said. “There’s a lot of things that satellites do for the whole population of Earth. And so any capability that could disrupt that, and that could therefore have some impact on services here on Earth and across the world, should be of concern to anybody.”
Russia has increased development of nuclear weapons
The concerns of a new nuclear weapon in space come as Moscow has ramped up development and testing of nuclear-capable weapons in recent years.
In 2021, Russia announced a nuclear-powered transport spaceship, the first of its kind, which is expected to deploy in 2030 and go all the way to Jupiter. Another system under development called the Zeus, a nuclear propulsion system, would remove old satellites from orbit, according to Russian media outlet Interfax.
In October, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the successful testing of an experimental long-range cruise missile that is propelled by nuclear power.
Russia is also ahead of the U.S. in the development of hypersonic missiles, which travel at the speed of Mach 5 or higher and are maneuverable in flight. They can carry nuclear warheads.
The U.S. has yet to deploy a true hypersonic missile, but Russia has already fielded the Zircon and the Kinzhal, both of which have been used in Ukraine. Another hypersonic deployed by Russia is the Avangard missile.
Pavel Luzin, a visiting scholar at Tufts University who specializes in Russia and Eurasia, said the Soviet Union launched 33 military reconnaissance and targeting spacecraft with nuclear reactors into low orbit from 1969 to 1988.
Moscow began increasing similar tests again in 1998 and has conducted research on nuclear power in space for years.
“Russian industry and authorities are seeking to apply nuclear power for military satellites,” he wrote in 2021. “Such spacecraft may be used for radar reconnaissance and electronic warfare (jamming) and be deployed to low, medium or geosynchronous orbits.”
Nuclear weapon in space would violate a major treaty
In 1967, Russia and the U.S. signed the Outer Space Treaty, which prohibits the deployment of nuclear weapons in space. The treaty is still ostensibly in force today.
Susi Snyder, program coordinator at the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, said if Russia were to deploy a weapon in space, “It’s absolutely violating a treaty and it would be a highly provocative act.”
It’s not clear what repercussions Russia may face for violating the treaty, but Snyder said the first step would likely be action at the United Nations Security Council.
She said since Russia can already take out a large number of satellites by smashing into them with conventional weapons and sparking a field of debris that takes out others, Moscow may be simply trying to threaten Washington.
“It escalates the sort of indirect conflict that exists right now between Russia and a lot of the NATO members that are supplying weapons and providing support for Ukraine,” she said. “The only reason I could think of would be to escalate that conflict.”
US has limited options to deal with hostile ASAT in space
Because space is not militarized, the U.S. likely does not have any defense system that could prevent a hostile Russian attack on satellites — at least none that are publicly known.
The Pentagon declined to share details Thursday about the potential Russian weapon but said it was not an immediate threat.
At the White House, Kirby said Biden directed a series of actions to address the threat, including briefing Congress, opening dialogue with Russia on the issue and meeting with U.S. allies.
“We’re taking this potential threat very, very seriously,” he said.
In 2020, Washington created the Space Force as the newest military branch to counter threats above Earth. But the Space Force is new and still finding its footing, and Guardians have yet to deploy in space or deploy any known defensive assets.
Mathieu Bataille, a research fellow at the European Space Policy Institute, said diplomacy could be difficult with Russia but deterrence may work.
“The U.S. can show its capabilities in disabling other satellites to show that they would also be able to do it with the potential nuclear weapon in space,” he said.
Russia’s mysterious weapon could be linked to Ukraine war
The potential deployment of a Russian nuclear weapon in space comes after Russia has repeatedly rattled its nuclear saber throughout the war in Ukraine.
Last year, Putin suspended participation in a major nuclear treaty with the U.S. and moved tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, part of what analysts say is a nuclear blackmail strategy as Moscow struggles to achieve its war aims.
The developments indicate that as tensions soar between the U.S. and Russia over Ukraine, mutual restraints on weapons of mass destruction are breaking down.
Russia may use the nuclear space weapon as another threat against the West, or it could also be a deployable asset to take out Ukraine’s capabilities, such as the Starlink satellites that have proved invaluable for Ukrainian troops on the battlefield.
“It’s a way to put constellations of satellites at risk,” Bataille said.