11 October 2023
Strong winds, dry vegetation and warm temps are a recipe for high fire danger. Areas farther southwest are currently under Fire Weather Warnings and Watches have expanded for most of western Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle Thursday.
A potent storm system is moving into the Plains. It is why temps are surging and winds are increasing right now.
A few showers will try to form in the northwest into the overnight.
We await the cold front to arrive Thursday. Aided on strong southerly winds, moisture is slowly returning to the area. Dew points in the lower 60s started to make a run for parts of south central and southeast Kansas this morning. Overnight lows will be mild in the 60s with cooler conditions to the northwest.
The degree as to how much moisture we have to use and the timing of Thursday’s cold front will be key.
Storm activity from Thursday afternoon into the evening will be isolated near and East of I-135. While all hazards are listed, including a tornado or two, there is a higher probability of having a storm with damaging winds and large hail. North central and northeast Kansas counties have the best chance of seeing storms. We will need to watch how far south the moisture can take root allowing for the possibility of a storm around the Wichita Metro into early evening.
Timing of storms should stay west of Kansas City to allow the Chiefs and Broncos game to play through during the evening. Unfortunately, much of the KSN viewing area will be in the driest portion of this system, also known as the dry-slot.
Winds will be elevated as this system travels through the region. We are starting to feel higher gusts now which will only be amped up further the next 48 hours.
Behind the cold front, light rain targets northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. With the arrival of colder air, a snowflake or two could mix in for our Nebraska counties. In addition, winds wrapping around the backside of this system will be intense. Gusts to 50 MPH are possible which could create low visibility due to blowing dust. High Wind alerts are posted in the northwest.
A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Wichita area for gusts to 45 MPH Thursday.
Temperatures return to more fall-like standards Friday, through the weekend and into next week with highs in the 50s and 60s. Southern Kansas will be milder than points farther north. We will be dry until next Wednesday when the following storm system tracks through the region.
KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman:
Wichita:
Tonight: Partly cloudy, windy. 10% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 64 Wind: S/SE 15-30
Tomorrow: Partly cloudy, windy. 20% chance of showers and storms. Hi: 85 Wind: S 15-30
Tomorrow Night: Partly cloudy, windy. 40% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 50 Wind: S/NW 10-25
Wichita Weekly
Fri: Hi: 63 Lo: 42 Partly cloudy, windy.
Sat: Hi: 62 Lo: 41 Partly cloudy, windy.
Sun: Hi: 62 Lo: 38 Partly cloudy.
Mon: Hi: 62 Lo: 37 Mostly sunny to partly cloudy.
Tue: Hi: 65 Lo: 42 Mostly sunny to partly cloudy.
Wed: Hi: 70 Lo: 46 Partly cloudy, breezy.
–Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman